Bill Oppenheim: Saratoga, Steady Enough

Given that we are in, shall we say, uncertain times politically and economically, probably still the most important metric in the horse business this morning was Saratoga's 40% rise in gross last August. That $13.5-million bump is graphically displayed in the Weekly Sales Ticker, and of course your eye is immediately drawn (top graph) to that big rise from 2014 to 2015. Fasig-Tipton increased the catalogue by another 21% this year (following a 29% increase last year) but, as is invariably the case when general market conditions are stagnant to down, all they really accomplished was holding the loss in gross to $1-million (- 2.5%), while the average dropped back to be almost exactly the same as in 2014–but with 37% more horses sold than two years ago, for 37% more money. Even so, there was a 7% decline in the clearance rate from the catalogue: 62% of the yearlings catalogued were sold this year, compared to 69% in 2014 and 2015; so, from the consignor's point of view, you were about 10% less likely to get 37% more money than two years ago.

To a certain extent, the discussion has to be about market tiers, and buyers. There are new buyers in North American racing; overwhelmingly they are Americans, mostly North American but a few South Americans as well–and very welcome they are, too. The Saratoga price range–$300,000–is a comfortable enough range for the newer American buyers, though it's striking that quite a few of them, individually and in groups, are buying just as much at the 2-year-old sales and off the racetrack as they are at yearling sales. It rolls off the tongue quite easily to say people are happier at the $300,000 level than the $500,000 level (of course they are), but it is striking how many seven-figure horses are now being bought in partnership by people who are rich enough to buy them on their own. But these shrewd cookies know that most expensive yearlings don't become group winners, so it does make sense to spread the risk, and it can be fun to have more than one team cheering for the successes. The ones who become stallion prospects–they'll work out where they stand once they get that far, if need be.

The other striking point about buyers was the lack of Europeans, and European money: John Ferguson's name wasn't on the results sheet, nor was Shadwell's, and Al Shaqab no doubt is gearing up for Arqana's August Sale this weekend. The China Horse Club, on its own and in partnership, were active buyers, and MV Magnier signed for a couple in partnership with Stonestreet, but–in spite of another run of USA-breds capturing important European races–there was really little to no European money at Saratoga. No doubt the European sales will be that much stronger this year through Maktoum and Qatari money landing there. For the most part, North American breeders seem resigned to breeding horses for North American racing, which sounds quite logical until you remember in the 'old days' European money would outbid American money 2-to-1.

Indeed, five of the six sires which had two or more sell for an average of $400,000 or more at Saratoga are American dirt sires, the only exception being Claiborne's War Front, who had two sell for an average of $555,000. The top sire was of course Gainesway's Tapit, North America's number 1 sire the last two years and counting. Last year Tapit had seven sell at Saratoga for an average of $885,714; he was slightly more subdued this year, but did have nine sell for an average of $713,889, including the $1,250,000 sale-topping colt; it may be that a $700,000 average, give or take, is about what the North American market will support right now.

Darley's Medaglia d'Oro ranked second, with six selling for an average of $609,167, including the overall sale-topping filly, at $1,450,000. Then, after War Front, the next three sires by average with two or more sold were: Adena Springs's Ghostzapper (four averaged $446,250); Coolmore Ashford's new sire sensation Uncle Mo (seven averaged $428,571); and WinStar's Pioneerof the Nile (four averaged $405,000). Seven first-year sires had two or more sell, headed by WinStar's Paynter (three averaged $263,333), followed by: Coolmore Ashford's Shanghai Bobby (six averaged $235,833) and Declaration of War (two averaged $225,000); Calumet's Oxbow (three averaged $206,667); Claiborne's Orb (five averaged $190,000); Hill 'n' Dale's Violence (three averaged $168,333); and Adena Springs's Point of Entry (two averaged $70,000). Click here to see an alphabetical list of all sires which had one or more sell at Saratoga, compiled by Dr. Emily Plant, from the Fasig-Tipton website.

COMING UP: Fasig's New York-bred sale this Saturday and Sunday–this sale has grossed $14-million and change for the last three years–and, from Sunday through Tuesday, Arqana's August Yearling Sale, at Deauville. That sale grossed €42-million last year, and is followed by their “v.2” sale next Wednesday.